Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.007108 0.008014 0.008993 0.010129 0.011413 0.012819 0.014476
2025-12-28 0.005819 0.007100 0.008597 0.010480 0.012786 0.015522 0.019021
2026-01-04 0.005041 0.006494 0.008290 0.010674 0.013764 0.017642 0.022892
2026-01-11 0.004517 0.006085 0.008109 0.010921 0.014737 0.019752 0.026870
2026-01-18 0.004001 0.005599 0.007745 0.010843 0.015219 0.021203 0.030050
2026-01-25 0.003609 0.005227 0.007473 0.010832 0.015750 0.022721 0.033412
2026-02-01 0.003237 0.004834 0.007124 0.010658 0.016002 0.023828 0.036242
2026-02-08 0.002987 0.004591 0.006958 0.010720 0.016586 0.025441 0.039934
2026-02-15 0.002734 0.004316 0.006714 0.010632 0.016916 0.026675 0.043124
2026-02-22 0.002586 0.004188 0.006679 0.010856 0.017739 0.028722 0.047761
2026-03-01 0.002334 0.003869 0.006313 0.010513 0.017610 0.029222 0.049884
2026-03-08 0.002141 0.003630 0.006055 0.010320 0.017701 0.030073 0.052646
2026-03-15 0.001944 0.003370 0.005745 0.010020 0.017596 0.030605 0.054941
2026-03-22 0.001878 0.003330 0.005803 0.010358 0.018628 0.033177 0.061086
2026-03-29 0.001794 0.003249 0.005781 0.010550 0.019410 0.035361 0.066708
2026-04-05 0.001724 0.003188 0.005790 0.010794 0.020300 0.037805 0.073020
2026-04-12 0.001614 0.003043 0.005633 0.010717 0.020581 0.039135 0.077303
2026-04-19 0.001523 0.002925 0.005517 0.010707 0.020984 0.040721 0.082213
2026-04-26 0.001418 0.002774 0.005326 0.010534 0.021052 0.041659 0.085894
2026-05-03 0.001351 0.002691 0.005258 0.010596 0.021588 0.043556 0.091695
2026-05-10 0.001272 0.002577 0.005122 0.010509 0.021814 0.044839 0.096313
2026-05-17 0.001233 0.002540 0.005136 0.010730 0.022691 0.047521 0.104153
2026-05-24 0.001137 0.002382 0.004892 0.010391 0.022359 0.047646 0.106403